April was a month for the history books, with unprecedented correlation breaks and fresh questions about the safety of US assets. We have been highly focused on the STRATEGIC asset allocation shifts that are now in motion, and which we track in our proprietary indicators and via our CIO network.
While the moves have been big already, with the most persistent moves observed in FX, it has not been a prolonged shift yet. Hedge funds may already be heavily involved, but our intelligence points to ongoing strategic shifts that will take months and quarters to play fully out, not days and months.
In this context, the big USD move started less than a month ago, and the historical moves in Asian currencies are only a couple of days old. From this perspective, we are still early in a structural shift.
Meet the Team Around the World: Next up…
Our team at Exante Data continues to stay globally connected—both digitally and on the ground. After a busy travel season, we’re excited to share that upcoming trips include stops in Toronto, London, and Copenhagen. These visits are part of our ongoing effort to engage directly with clients, partners, and policymakers around the world.
Please reach out to alicia.chambers@exantedata.com if you would like to connect in these destinations—we’d love to meet while we’re in town
Unlock Deeper Insights into EM and G10 Positioning & Flows
Over the past year, Michael Trounce and our team at Exante Data have been refining the most comprehensive EM positioning and flow data available. In response to client feedback, we’ve synthesized these insights into a single document—providing EM PMs, strategists, and specialists with a fast, clear view of market dynamics across a broad set of economies. Further, there is intense demand for G10 data that accurately provide timely insights into asset allocation shifts (away from US assets). Our flow tracking has proved helpful in this regard too, during the last 5 important weeks.
If you’re interested in accessing this proprietary data and analytics, reach out to Michael Trounce at Michael.trounce@exantedata.com.
Jens Nordvig on Scott Bessent’s Endgame on POLITICO
In a recent POLITICO article featuring CEO, Jens Nordvig, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s perspective on reducing government spending, calling for a ‘detox’ of the economy is discussed. He believes federal spending has become unsustainable and needs to be scaled back.
Jens addressed Bessent’s approach in a letter during his nomination in November. As Jens mentioned in his feature with Politico, ‘The primary motivation for Scott to want this job is I think he wants to have a legacy of having improved the debt dynamics of the United States.’
Are Foreigners Selling U.S. Assets? – Substack
Exante Data has received many questions lately about U.S. capital flows — especially whether we’re seeing ongoing foreign selling of U.S. assets.
To address this, we’ve published a new Substack post outlining our conceptual framework — what we call the “mosaic approach.” The piece shares how we piece together insights from various sources, including key data points from our proprietary FlowPro tool, with a focus on fixed income.
While it doesn’t cover everything (a lot of our detailed work remains client-only), it offers a clear look at how we approach this critical topic. For those watching cross-border capital dynamics, this is essential reading.
Strategic Rebalancing Underway — Jens Nordvig in Barron’s
As global trade tensions intensify, Exante Data CEO Jens Nordvig was featured in Barron’s analyzing the delicate balance of power in current U.S. trade negotiations. In the article, Nordvig points to Japan’s subtle warning—highlighting its $1 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings—as a sign that Washington may be “overplaying its hand.”
“Other countries have cards to play too,” Nordvig told Barron’s, underscoring that even U.S. allies are starting to flex their financial leverage.
The piece highlights how retaliatory signals from key global players like Japan and China could have far-reaching consequences for U.S. debt markets and economic stability. As the White House seeks quick trade wins ahead of July, Jens’s insights shed light on the deeper risks of economic brinkmanship and the shifting foundations of global financial power.
Jens Nordvig in New York Times During Time of Strategic Importance
As global investors rethink the role of U.S. assets amid geopolitical volatility, Exante Data CEO Jens Nordvig has been a leading voice in two recent New York Times features analyzing the dollar’s declining dominance.
In the first piece, Jens describes the recent turbulence in U.S. bonds and the dollar as taking on “E.M.-like” characteristics — a striking comparison that challenges the assumption of U.S. safe haven status.
In the second article, Nordvig comments on the broader and potentially irreversible implications of U.S. policy under the Trump administration: “Something is in motion that is irreversible,” he says, as the global financial system begins to question the centrality of the U.S. dollar.
With capital flows shifting and dollar skepticism rising, these interviews underscore the critical juncture global markets are now facing — and the need for rigorous data to navigate it.
Client Feedback Spotlight
We’re proud to share positive feedback from our clients, reflecting the impact of our insights and solutions. Their experiences highlight the value we bring in helping them navigate complex markets and make informed decisions.
Here’s what our institutional clients are saying about working with us:
“Thanks Exante Team. We follow your work very closely and think it’s excellent.” – London based Macro Strategist
“I think the price that you charge is too low. Your quality of output is far superior to peers cost wise.” – European Hedge Fund CIO