Two major STRATEGIC shifts in a matter of weeks…
Since January 20, we have witnessed two major strategic shifts in the global economy.
First, there was a significant turning point in European fiscal policy. Germany, for the first time since WWII, broke from decades of tradition—committing to large-scale structural investment in defense and stepping away from long-standing debt rules that have defined European fiscal frameworks for generations.
Second, U.S. trade policy has entered an entirely new era. Whether one calls it a full-blown shift toward mercantilism or something else, it is clear that the U.S. role in the global trading system is changing dramatically. The implications for global growth, geopolitics, and asset allocation are profound.
At Exante Data, our team has worked relentlessly over the past 2–3 months to stay ahead of these monumental developments. We serve some of the most sophisticated investors globally—including major hedge funds, large asset managers, sovereign wealth funds, and other highly active market participants. Staying ahead of consensus in this environment is no small feat—but it’s what we do. And it’s incredibly rewarding to see how much our work is valued.
For example, after our early call on Germany and European fiscal policy, a major hedge fund client wrote:
“This was the earliest call I saw across all external consultants and street analysts. Congrats and thank you.”
This week, we again managed to stay ahead of the curve. On Monday—before the “Liberation Day” announcements—we hosted a prep call with our key clients. The response was immediate:
“Your call on the tariffs was the most aggressive I have seen. Very helpful.”
But the work doesn’t stop there.
Last night, we hosted a research dinner in New York City, bringing together participants from rating agencies, central banks, official institutions, and CIOs and strategists from some of the world’s largest real-money institutions. The focus was the next big question: What do these strategic shifts mean for global asset allocation?
The Dollar has started to trade differently, and the correlation to US equities is in flux. And this has potential to play into major asset allocation shifts. The emerging consensus is that international investors, who have previously bought into US exceptionalism, is the key here. Will they mostly continue as ‘usual’ or will there by a ‘new column’ in the asset allocation process, that embeds new risks, from currency and trade policy, as well as ‘rule of law’.
We are headed in that direction. But the unanswered question is how dramatic the shift will be, and over time frame, and we will put large infrastructure of global flow analysis to work to address that issue (and we will formally launch FlowPro in coming weeks and months).
Understanding U.S. Tariff Rates
On April 2nd, our Head of Research Analytics, Alex Etra, uncovered a striking pattern in how the U.S. administration set its reciprocal tariff rates—an insight that quickly gained traction across financial circles. The analysis has sparked widespread discussion among investors and policymakers, as they work to decode the administration’s approach.
Our CEO, Jens Nordvig, also received an influx of positive feedback and connection requests following the release of this research, highlighting the strong demand for data-driven insights on this evolving issue.
Alex’s latest Substack, Liberation Day, dives into how tariff rates were determined—not by traditional trade barriers, but by U.S. bilateral trade deficits. This discovery has significant implications for trade negotiations, as it suggests that tariff reductions may not come as quickly as many had hoped.
Asset Allocation and the Role of the USD
This is a chart that we are watching in real-time on the Exante Data analytics platform, monitoring on a global basis, how the USD is trading with risk sentiment, while controlling for monetary policy shifts. The last few weeks have signaled a shift, and if this shift is lasting, it will start to feed into asset allocation re-thinking.
Research Dinner: A New Regime for Sovereign Risk
Our research dinner in New York City last night brought together top minds to explore the evolving sovereign debt landscape in a world of rising debt, geopolitical uncertainty, increased military spending, and inflation risks.
With thought-provoking insights from industry leaders—including our CEO, Jens Nordvig, alongside experts from central banks and rating agencies—the evening sparked meaningful discussions that will continue to shape perspectives in the months ahead.
The success of this gathering is just the beginning. We have more exclusive dinners planned, bringing together key decision-makers to tackle the most pressing macroeconomic and market challenges.
Client Call – Looking Forward to Liberation Day: Tariffs and Retaliation
Our latest client call on the evolving tariff landscape was highly attended, underscoring the strong demand for in-depth analysis on this critical issue. While some may argue the topic is overhyped, the reality is that recent developments—particularly the structure of reciprocal tariffs—could have far-reaching consequences for markets and the broader economy.
The Exante Data team continues to track these shifts closely, providing real-time insights on the policy landscape and its investment implications.
If you’re interested in gaining access to our proprietary analysis or recording of the call, reach out to kaye.gentle@exantedata.com.
Client Feedback Spotlight
We’re proud to share positive feedback from our clients, reflecting the impact of our insights and solutions. Their experiences highlight the value we bring in helping them navigate complex markets and make informed decisions.
Here’s what our institutional clients are saying about working with us:
“This was the earliest call I saw across all external consultants and street analysts. Congrats and thank you.”
“Best exante call I been .. Very cohesive message and delivering quite good conviction despite the difficulties on benchmarking the current regime”
“Great work thus far. We appreciate it.”
“Awesome coverage on the tariff stuff guys”